Battery Market Intelligence · Data period 2020–2026 (Fastmarkets/CEIC) · Last reviewed 2026-09-16
| Geography | China |
|---|---|
| Year | 2024–2026 (as sourced per figure) |
| Battery scope | Lead-acid + lithium-ion; scope stated per figure |
| Unit | US$ / yuan / TWh — stated per figure |
| Data source | IEA, customs/industry data, research estimates (see Sources) |
| Point | Price (yuan/ton) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2020 (record low) | ~44,070 | Pre-boom |
| Nov 2022 (all-time high) | ~597,000 | Supply squeeze at peak demand |
| Jun 2025 | < 60,000 | Overcapacity collapse |
| End 2025 | > 130,000 | Rebound — supply constraints, policy |
| Mid-Jan 2026 | Futures +25% YTD | Continued tightening |
Sources: CEIC monthly averages, Fastmarkets spot, industry reporting.
The 2022-2025 collapse was overcapacity: China's lithium capacity (see China's lithium industry) outran demand, and prices fell to below cost for some producers. The 2025 rebound came from the other side: limited mine production, maintenance shutdowns and regulatory policies tightened supply in H2 2025, plus China's trading policy intervention — a reminder that this market is policy-shaped as well as demand-driven.
Lithium carbonate is the raw-material anchor: its swings flow into cell costs and, with a lag, into pack prices. The 2025 rebound moderated the steep pack-price decline without reversing it — cell makers absorbed much of the input swing through margins and LFP's cost structure. The lesson: pack prices trend down, but the input cycle is volatile, and both facts matter for sourcing timing.
Two rates, one cycle: from 597,000 yuan/ton (Nov 2022) to under 60,000 (Jun 2025) the annualised decline is roughly −59%; the rebound to over 130,000 by end-2025 is about +117% in six months. Three years of oversupply on the way down, one half-year of tightening on the way up — the asymmetry that defines lithium pricing.
The carbonate price connects to cell cost through a rough conversion: an LFP cell carries on the order of half a kilogram of lithium carbonate equivalent per kWh — so a 100,000 yuan/ton swing in carbonate moves LFP cell cost by roughly a few tens of yuan per kWh, other things equal. The ratio is why the carbonate chart and the cell-price chart move together — and why NMC cells track nickel and cobalt instead.
Where I stand: The 2025 rebound shows the price cycle is not over — it was suppressed, not abolished — and the market that went from 597,000 to under 60,000 yuan can tighten again faster than most buyers expect.
Why: Overcapacity explains the collapse; policy and supply shocks explain the rebound. The combination means lithium pricing keeps a whip-lash character even as the long-run trend stays down — which is exactly why sourcing strategy must be timing-aware, not trend-complacent.
This is the author's editorial view, not investment or purchasing advice.
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